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The Hobbit and Probability

Bilbo, Gandalf and the dwarves convene in Bilbo's house to discuss one thing: whether the evil dragon Smaug is alive or dead.

They discuss for a long time and estimate the probability that Smaug is alive, p, is 0.15.

Since they believe p = 0.15, select all the statements below that they also believe in:

Smaug is more likely dead than alive.
Smaug is definitely alive.
It is more likely that Smaug is dead.
Smaug is probably alive.

Aligned with Common Core:
7.SP.5 - Probability and likelihood

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Probability can range from 0 to 1. A larger value means more likely.

Sam Reali

Constantly meta-thinking about teaching. Scream...

Before going on the journey to recover Erebor's gold, Bilbo and others convene to assess how likely Smaug the dragon is still alive. Aligned with Common Core Math 7.SP.5 (probability and likelihood).

math movies the hobbit bilbo common core probability 7.sp.5